各国の経済成長および衰退のサイクルについて

Ray Dalioがインドについてpositiveなコメントを出していたが、

ここではより全体像を論じたものを紹介。

4 drivers of economic growth: culture, indebtedness, competitiveness, and luck.

負債が少なく、競合に打ち勝つ利点を有して運が良ければ成長できる。

（文化とは恐らく技術革新に対する人々の欲求などを指す。）

+ two most positive influences on the growth drivers.

1. psychological framework that create people's desire to work, horrow and consume
→animal spirit. (トランプが大統領選に勝利した際に起こった）

2. War

Brifgewater's explanation of the five different stages of the process in a sovereign's life cycle:

1) In the first stage countries are poor and think that they are poor.
→極貧国。

2) In the second stage countries are getting rich quickly but still think they are poor.

良く働き、輸出依存の経済で貯蓄に勤しむ。輸出先の債券を積極的に購入。

→高度経済成長期の日本、今のインド？。2000年代の中国。

3) In the third stage countries are rich and think of themselves as rich.

生産性が世界でトップクラスになり、収入が最大化する。

働く時間数が減り（統計的に6日から5日に減少）、贅沢を覚える

→シンガポール、今の中国

4) In the fourth stage countries become poor and still think of themselves as rich.

This is the leveraging up phase - debts rise relative to incomes until they cannot any more. he reduced level of efficient investments in infrastructure, capital goods and R&D slow their productivity gains. Their cities and infrastructures become older and less efficient than those in the two earlier stages. They increasingly rely on their reputations rather than on their competitiveness to fund their deficits. They typically spend a lot of money on the military at this stage, sometimes very large amounts because of wars, in order to protect their global interests.

→韓国？トランプ大統領時のアメリカ

5) In the last stage of the cycle they typicaly go through deleveraging and relative decline, which they are slow to accept

After bubles burst and when deleveraging occur, private debt growth, private sector spending, asset values and net worth s decline in a self-reinforcing negative cycles.
To compensate, government debt growth, government deficits and central bank printing of money increase.

As a result of these low real interest rates, weak currencies and poor economic conditions, their debt and equity assets are poor performing and increasingly these countries have to compete with less expensive countries that are in the earlier stages of development. Their currencies depreciate and they like it. As an extension of these economic and financial trends, countries in this stage see their power in the world decline.

→日本、EUの一部（イタリア、スペイン、ポルトガル）

Bottom line

#2の国々に投資をするのは良い戦略と言える。

現状だとやはりインドか。