債券バブル
現在一番のバブルは債券であるが、弱気相場に入ったと考える投資家は多い。
そもそも債券バブルとは何か？
まずはRay Dalioの言葉から。
Expected return of bond relative to their risks are especially bad. If interest rate rise just a little bit more than is discounted in the curve, it will have a big negative effect on bonds and all asset prices, as they are all very sensitive to the discount rate used to calculate the present value of their future cash flows.
For example, it would only take a 100 basis point rise in Treasury bond yeilds to trigger the worst price decline in bonds since 1981 bond market crash. And since those interest are embeded in the pricing of all investment assests, that would send them all much lower.
参照：-金利の債券が$13Tも存在 (debt that offers investors a guaranteed loss if held to maturity). 
では、なぜ-金利が存在するのか？
この金利バブルはどのように崩壊するのか？
この疑問に対しては日本の政策を理解する必要がある。
To see how we get to a higher rate environment when we're in such a slow growth world, we have to turn to the avant garde (アバンギャルド) of central banking - the Bank of Japan.
BOJ monetary policy : zero rate targeting for 10-year Japanease government bonds.
By setting the price of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGB) at zero percent, the bank is effectively saying it will contract or (more likely) expand its balance sheet to whatever size necessary to keep prices there.
That in itself is prettey extraordinary, but the reason why the BOJ is doing this may be even more so.
Saddeled with over 500% in total debt-to GDP, Japan has backed itself into a corner in which there's only one way out: inflation.
By keeping the long-term rate pegged at zero, the BOJ is allowing the Abe government to conduct large scale fiscal stimulus by issuing unlimited bonds while taking away the risk of triggering a death-spiral in JGBs that would lead to higher interest rates — since the BOJ will just print yen and buy whatever 10-years the market sells.
The yen may look a lot like Zimbabwean dollars in a few years time.
Bonds and curencies are inextricably linked. Bonds are just durational assets of a currency.
When a currency is debased (lose it value), the bonds that are held in that currency also lost value. So when governments debase their currency (inflation), they’re intentionally devaluing the cost of their debt.This is why bonds sell off in inflationary regimes, because that inflation is directly eroding both the coupon and principal on those bonds.This results in investors fleeing from fixed income assets and into things that offer better protection from inflation.
And this fleeing from JGBs causes a rapid feedback loop
1) Investors see the yen depreciating
2) They sell JGBs in response
3) BOJ print more yen to buy up those JGBs to sustain the zero target
4) Yen depreciates further
1)に戻る.
It’s easy to see how this will get out of control quickly. There’s no chance the BOJ can manage a controlled devaluation with this method. Once the feedback loop kicks off, we can expect the value of the yen to be destroyed.
(これはジョージソロスの理論と同じ)
現状日本しか行っていないが、他の国も追随する可能性がある.
And the reason for this is simply because Japan is furthest along in its long-term debt cycle, followed closely by Europe, the US and finally, China.
この推論が正しければ、長期で見たとき、円は絶対に持ってはいけない。
債券はTIP (STIP, VTIP etf)か新興国債券を持つべきか。
