Short-term & long-term debt cycle
Money = cash + credit
(In US, cash; $3T, total credit; $60T.)
cash とcreditとの差異
When you buy simething with cash, you exchange that cash for a service or good. The transaction is closed.
When you buy something with credit, you exchange credit (a promise to pay in the future) for a good or service now. That transaction is not complete until the borrower pays off that debt.
経済を促進させる3因子
1. Long-term productivity growth
生産性は常に向上しており、歴史的に平均2%で成長してきた。creditの無い世界では、この生産した分しか消費できない。しかし、creditを使用することで、現時点で生産可能な量以上（将来稼げるはずという仮定のもと）に消費できる。
→このcredit systemは生産性の向上が予定より下回った時（消費した分を返済できないため）破綻する。
This irreconcilable difference creates cycles.
These cycles, that oscillate around the 2% productivity trendline are called debt cycles (= leveraging and deleveraging of debt/credit).
A debt leveraging occurs as we increase our debt spending over time (total laod relative to income). By doing so, we pull future consumption forward while causing temporary increases in productivity above the 2% trendline average.
Eventually, these leveraging reach a saturation point where debt servicing costs relative to incomes grow too large. When that point is reached, the economy will begin a deleveraging, falling below the 2% trendline.
(無限に借金できないということ)
Short-term debt cycle (business cycle)
5-7 years.
Result from the easing and tightening of money by the Fed.
金利低下が与える3つの影響
1. New credit becomes more attractive (borrow more money)
2. Existing debt becomes cheaper
3. The discount rate at which businesses and financial assets are valued is lowered. Investors then bid up these assets, moving further out on the risk curve, causing spreads between financial instruments to tighten.
金利低下（借入コスト減少）→需要増大→資産価格の向上（インフレ）→更に借入コストの減少→→(ループが続く)
This is reflexive process. Increased raises demand which drives up incomes and inflates asset prices. Higher asset prices result in stronger credit profiles which lead to more lending/borrowing.
A positive feedback loop is created.
Credit demand can be created much faster than what an economy can realistically support. When this happens, inflation begins to accelerate because there's more demand than what suppliers can handle (demand-pull inflation).→Fed raises interest rates.
先ほどのloopはFedが金利を再び下げるまで逆戻り.注意: But this time, since debts are now higher than they were when the Fed previously lowered rates, the Fed has to cut interest rates even lower than they were before.
上記のグラフからいえること。
1. GDP成長率が下がれば、金利を下げるし、成長率が上昇すれば（2-3%程度）、金利を上げる.ただし、GDP成長率の低下から金利の低下までにはラグがある。
→long-term debt cycle.
The long-term debt cycle
25-50 years.
↑長期の金利を説明するグラフ
Debt = Public debt (debt owed by the government) + private debt (debt owed by households and corporations).
Private debt is the primary driver of debt cycles. Private debt is where the demand comes from that propels the economy. Also, governments can more easily manage their debt by monetizing it through central banks.
Fedが金利を上昇しているので、long-term debt cycleはdelevaragingの段階。
問題は近年0金利となり債務も積み重なった状態でlong-term debt cycleがどうなるか？
