Ray Dalioによるインドの見通し
What is your view of the Indian economy?
cf. Ray Dalioの計量分析
We do a computerised study that forecasts which the fastest-growing economies will be based on certain key performance indicators. In my study, India has the best projected next-10-year growth rate, using data for the last 60 years. The structural reforms that have been initiated are great.
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//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/63196110.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
経済成長を支える四つの因子
1. The relative cost of an educated person.
2. The level of indebtedness (負債額)
3. Positive population growth (中国とロシアはこの点がダメ)
4. Culture (the individual has a sense of self efficiency and work ethic)
Will rising oil prices be the biggest risk for india in 2018?
No. First, oil’s impact as a percentage of GDP has come down a lot and so has oil price volatility because of shale.
Because now capacity can come on and off. In the old oil market, you drill a hole and you took it out, and there wasn’t much incremental cost in doing that. So, the capacity of production is relatively fixed. In the new oil market with shale, you can turn it on and turn it off depending on the price. That tends to create limits on the upside of the price.
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//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/63196110.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
→Interest rateが一番の脅威。特に、今年はEUと中国が金融引き締めを始めようとしているので注意。
減税が与える影響
ここはRay Dalioが一貫して伝えている主張
The majority (80%) of the economy that gets very little benefit from tax cat. So, it widens the gap and it puts is in the risk of having the tax break (租税回避), cause a recession. If a recession happens, that would be terrible now, particulary because of that tension. If you haverich people and poor people living together andhaving a common budgest, and you have an economic downtown, you're going to have a lot of conflict.
現在、金融市場は最高の状態にも関わらず、社会的衝突が多い。経済が悪化した際に、どの程度社会が混乱するか？
That's why we have populism. We have populism because capitalism is not working too well for the majority of the population.
Emerging Marketに強気な理由
First of all, their economies generally balanced well — not overly indebted, not late in their economic cycles, etc. They have capacity and they now are developing their own markets within their regions. Before, it used to be that you needed dollars and to get them exported to the US. Now there are markets within the region, you don’t need to export to the US and you don’t need dollars as much. And there’s excess capacity so there can be growth with our rising inflation and interest rates.
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//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/63196110.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
世界の基軸通貨に関して
We are in a time in which it is appropriate to ask what is the world’s reserve currency? The dollar’s role as a reserve currency is declining. It is in anachronism (時代錯誤). It’s like the G7. You look at the G7 and you say that’s funny that that’s the power of the world, right? That’s no longer the case, so the dollar’s role as a reserve is declining as its dominance in the worl economy is declining.
Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/63196110.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
経済先行きで一番の懸念
1. We don't see systemic risk of debt crisis
2. Sensitivity to interest rate change. I think it's going to be very difficult for the gas coming from fidcal stimulus and the brakes coming from Fed restraint to be put on the same time (両者とも金利を上昇させる) when the economy is approaching capacity constraints.
Bottom line
Long: INDA etf
Short: long interest rate, BOND.
