- At 12/3/2020, the weighted average yeild on total investments at amortized cost and fiar value was 8.0% and 8.2%, respectively, and 84% of the total investments at fair value were in floating rate securities.

2021-02-09

Commodity関連銘柄の購入

コロナにより市場が急落して以来売買をしてこなかったが、ポートフォリオを改変する。

きっかけは下記の記事

www.globalmacroresearch.org

コロナの回復とともに経済が周る上に、アメリカでは景気刺激策で需要が高まることが予想される。金利にとってはマイナス、そしてドルにとってもマイナスであるので、金鉱株及び資源株に注目したい。

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CTVA

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BTG

を5%ずつほど購入する。

金利と穀物価格については今後注視していく。

2021-01-06

Royalty Pharma S-1 メモ

Prospectus summary

Overview

- largest buyer of biopharmaceutical royalities.

- founded 1996

- fund innovation in the biopharmaceutical industry both directly and indirectly

(directly) when we partner with companies to co-fund late-stage clinical trials and new product launches in exchange for future royalites

(indirectly) when we acquire existing royalities from the original innvators.

Royalities in biopharmaceutical industry (value chain of drug development)

1. Academia conduct basic research and license new technologies to industry.

2. Biotechnology companies typically in-license these new technologies, add value through applied research and early-stage clinical development, and then either commercialize the products.

3. or out-license the resulting development-stage product candidates to (3) large biopharmaceutical companies for late-stage clinical development and commercialization

-> as new drugs are transffered along this value chain, royalties are created.

The development of a single new drug can lead to the creation of multiple royalties.

We acquire royalties on approved products, often in the early stages of their comercial launches, and development-stage product candidates with strong proof of cencept data, mitigating development risk and expanding our opportunity set.

Our strength

- portfolio provides direct exposure to a broad array of blockbuster therapies.

22 royalites sales > $1B (7 therapies > $3B).

- portofolio is highly diversified across products, therapeutic areas and marketers.

45 marketed therapies (oncology, neurology, HIV, cardiology and diabetes)

no individual therapy accounted for more than 16% of royalty receipts.

- the ley growth-driving royalties are protected by long patent lives.

weight average duration is 15 years.

- a long track record of identifying and acquiring royalties on blockbuster therapies and growing our royalty receipts.

- simple and highly efficient operating model which generates substantial cash flow for reinvestment in new biopharmaceutical rpyalties.

capital-efficient operating model: no material capital investment in fixed assets or infrastructure.

- Our business model captures many of the most attractive aspects of the biopharmaceutical industry, but with reduced exposure to many common industry challenges.

(attractive) long product life cycles, significant barriers to entry and non-cyclical revenues.

- unique role in the biopharmaceutical ecosystem positions us to benefit from multiple compounding growth drivers.

- we have the ability to capitalize on innovation from across the biopharmaceutical ecosystem.

- We have a talented, long-tenured team with deep relevant experience.

Our opportunuity

- academic institutions, research hospitals and not-for-profits – acquire existing royalities, typically in order to facilitate the diversification of asset portfolio and/or to provide funds for the support of ongoing scientific research or major capital projects.

- small and mid-sized biotechnology companies – acquire existing royalities, new synthetic royalities or the funding of clinial trials.

- Global bioparmaceutical companies – acquire non-strategic, passive royalities, or provide funding for clinical trials.

Risk factors

- Biopharmaceutical products are subject to sales risks.

- the royalty market may not grow at the same rate as it has in the pasts.

- Acquisitions of royalties from development-stage biopharmaceutical product candidates are subject to a number of uncertainties.

- Our failure to realize expected benefits of such acquisitions or our incurrence of unanticipated liabilities, could adversely affect our share price, operating results and results of operations.

- We use leverage in connection with our capital deployment, which magnifies the potential for loss if the royalties acquired do not generate sufficient income to us.

- We have no employees and are entirely dependent upon the Manager for all the services we require.

- The success of our business depends upon key members of the Manager’s senior advisory team who may not continue to work for the Manager.

- Our business is subject to interest rate and foreign exchange risk.

- The insolvency of a marketer could adversely affect our receipt of cash flows on the related royalties that we hold.

2021-01-05

Dropbox spaces

Dropboxが最近注力しているdropbox spaces (virtual workspace)について

Dropbox Goes All in on Remote Work: Unveils New Features and Tools for Distributed Teams | Dropbox

Aragon Research Positions Dropbox in the Leader Section of the Globe for Digital Work Hubs, 2021 | Dropbox

slackのように小さな組織向けで、下記のサービスがある。

Project Spaces: Create a project Space to bring the internal team, external clients, content, timeline, and project tasks all into one organized place. It provides an intuitive surface for the project, so teams can contribute and collaborate together as they move the project forward.
Tasks: Prioritize what needs to be done and keep projects on track. Create, manage, assign, and comment on tasks across multiple projects. Attach project files to relevant tasks and manage personal to-do lists.
Content: Quickly find, add, and manage relevant project information. Users can easily add files (including traditional file types and cloud content, like Google Docs) directly to Spaces, and search for files across projects.
Meetings: Easily join, organize, and follow up on meetings from Spaces. Centralize important information like agendas, action items, and attendees in customizable meeting templates and embed meeting docs directly in a project Space. Automatically sync meeting docs to calendar invites so everyone stays on the same page.
Updates: Stay up to date with a shared team view of work in progress and project updates. Attach files to posts in the updates feed, respond to comments with text, an emoji, or link to a file.

まだprivate betaのみなので試せないが、便利そうである。

slackに対抗できるかは不安であるが、現状のdropboxユーザーを取り込めれば勝機はあるかも知れない。

2021-01-03

Dropbox 2020 Q3

investors.dropbox.com

2020年の3Q決算まとめ

- revenue: $487.4 million (+14%) beat by $3.76 million

- EPS $0.26 beat by $0.07

- Paying users: 15.25 million (was 14.00 million)

- Average revenue per paying user: $128.03 (was $123.15)

- Free cash flow: $187.0 million (was $102.5 million)

- Q4 guidance: $497-499M in revenue (consensus: $494.09M).

Strategy -

2007; keeping files in sync (cloud storage)

Now; keeping teams in sync (smart workspace)

Product update

- The new Dropbox (Bring together cloud content and files in one place, integrated with apps)

- Dropbox transfer (view, download, and comment on Transfer)

- Dropbox passwords

- Dropbox vault

- Computer Backup

- Dropbox family

S-1で見た通り、Dropboxの収益は有料登録している会員数に依存している。一貫して増加しているので、今回の決算も良かったと言える。

2021-01-03

Dropbox S-1 メモ

2018年にIPOしたDropbox (DBX)のS-1について

Our Business

Our modern economy runs on knowledge. Today, knowledge lives in the cloud as digital content, and Dropbox is a global collaboration platform where more and more of this content is created, accessed, and shared with the world.

Dropbox was founded in 2007 with a simple idea: Life would be a lot better if everyone could access their most important information anytime from any device.

-> Our market opportunity has grown as we've expanded from keeping files in sync to keeping tems in sync. We've forcused on reducing the inordinate amount of time and energy the world wastes on "work about work" – tedious tasks like searching for content, switching between application, and managing workflows.

Prospectus summary

1. What sets us apart

- Simple and intuitive design. designed for the cloud era.

- Open ecosystem. work with other products.

- Viral, bottom-up adoption. Our 500M registered users are our best salepeople.

- Performance and security.

2. Industry trends in our favor

- Content is increasingly scattered.

- The tools people use are fragmented.

- Teams have become more fluid and global

- "Work about work" is wasteful and stifles creativity.

- Individual users are changing the way software is adopted and purchased.

3. Our solution

- Unified home for content.

- Global sharing network.

- new product experinces.

4. Our growth strategy

- Increase adoption and paid conversion.

- Upgrade our paying users.

- Apply insights to build new product experiences.

- Expand our ecosystem

5. Risk factor summary. (discussed later).

Key business Metrics

- paying users: 6.5M, 8.8M, 11.0M (2015,2016,2017)

- average revenue per paying user: $113.54, $110.54, $111.91 (2015,2016,2017)

Risks related to our business and our industry.

- Our business depends on our ability to retain and upgrade paying users, and any decline in renewals or upgrades could adversely affect our future results of operations.

-> Given the volume of our users, we do not track the retention rates of our individual users.

- Our future growth could be harmed if we fail to attract new users or convert users to paying users.

90% of our revenue is from self-serve channels.

2017: 500M registered, 11M paying users (2%!).

Turn our focus to converting registered users to paying users rather than growing the total number of registered users.

- Our revenue growth rate has declined in recent periods and may continue to slow in the future.

- We have history of net losses, we anticipate increaing expenes in the future, and we may not be able to achieve or maintain profitability.

Investment to scale our business (increasing amount of technical infrastructure to continue go satisfy the needs of our user base).

+ research and development expenses to increase as we plan to hire employees for our engineering, product, and design teams.

- Our business could be damaged, and we could be subject to liability if there is any unauthorized access to our data or our users' content, including through privacy and data security breaches.

- Our business could be harmed by any significant disruption of service on our platform or loss of content.

- We generate revenue from sales of subscriptions to our platform, and any decline in demand for our platform or for content collaboration solutions in general could negatively impact our business.

- Our business depends upon the interoperability of our platform across devices, oprating systems, and third-party applications that we do not control.

- We operate in competitive markets, and we must continue to compete effectively.

- We may not be able to respond to rapid technological changes, extend our platform, or develop new features.

- We may not successfully manage our growth or plan for future growth.

- Our lack of a significant outbound sales force may limit the potential growth of our business.

- We depend on our key personal and other highly qualified personnel, and if we fail to attract, integrate, and retain our personnel, and maintain our unique corporate culture, our business could be harmed.