売買メモ 2021/06/08
バフェット、チャーリーの売買を参考にした。
- 売却
- WFC: 短期がゼロのまま長期金利が上昇していたので今年購入していたが、バフェットが売却したので追随して売ることにする。 - 購入
- VZ: バフェットの直近3Qで一番の投資
- BABA: チャーリーのこの15年で唯一の大きな投資
両者とも資産の10%ほど購入
Alibaba > U.S. Treasury Bills?
BIDEN = ROOSEVELT （Linked inの記事より）
1925-45 ~ 2005-2025
要点
- 1920s, 2000-2007: produced a lot of debt, wealth gaps, abd bubbles. -> Tightening -> econimic downturns -> easing (short-term interest rate to 0%).
- (couldn't lower than 0%), the Fed printed a lot of money and bought bonds.
- Cash became trash.
- Low interest rates and all that money printing drove up the prices of most everything (inflation), most notably gold and stocks
- Wealth and political gaps led to shit from Republican to a Democratic -> stimulate the economy and redistribute wealth through fiscal and monetary policies.
- Under Roosevelt, the federal government increased its spending, (1) due to social programs and (2) due to the war. This spending is financed by both raising taxes on the wealthy and a lot of monetizing the debts.
インフレに備えるべき
世界のワクチン摂取上位国
下記はgoogleで検索すると各国のワクチン摂取率（@3/24）が出てくる。世界全体の摂取は1.3%ほどだが、世界での上位は下記の表にある通りでなかなか興味深い結果となっている。
Location Does fully vaccinated %
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Gibraltar
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Israel
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Seychelles
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United Arab Emirates
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Monaco
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Cayman Islands
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Bermuda
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Chile
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Bahrain
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United States
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規模が小さい国（地域）も含まれているので、実質の順位は、
でこの四カ国が世界でもワクチン摂取をリードしている。
この四カ国に投資するのは良いアイディアだろうか？
sell GDRX @3/13
少し前になるが、保有していたGDRXは全て売却。
決算が良くなく（netで大幅なマイナス）株価も下がっていたため、迷ったが売却した。
望むべくはより前の段階で売却できていれば良かった。結局ほぼ買値で売ったので、0.5%ほどの損失を出してしまった。
Silver etfの購入
FEDが金融引き締めに動かない限りCommoditiesは良い投資になるだろう。goldは歴史的に高いので、silverを選ぶ。
expense ratioが低いSLV (physical silver)とSLVP (silver metal miner)を合計資産の8%ほど購入。
SLVP https://www.etf.com/SLVP#overview
IEP 20Q4決算
相変わらず驚異的な配当を提供。ここ数ヶ月は株価も上昇していたので、現状プラス。
決算は予想よりは良かったが、決算発表時はマイナス。
- Revenue $2.75B (+5.0%, Y/Y) beats by $0.54B
- GAAP EPS $0.61, beats by $1.08
Overview of Icahn Enterprises (IEP)
- a diversified holding company with operating segments in Investments, Energy, Automotive, Food Packaging, Metals, Real Estate, and Home Fashion.
- $8.00 annualized distribution (16.2% yeild)
- maximize shareholder value through proven activist strategy
-> seeks undervalued companies and often becomes actively involved in the targeted companies.
Operating systems
1. Investment
- fair value ~ $4.1B
- 2004~2020, cumulative return was 63.6%, annual return was 3.1%.
(histrory of activist investments)
◦Financial / balance sheet restructurings (e.g., CIT Group, Apple)
◦Operational turnarounds (e.g., Motorola, Navistar)
◦Strategic initiatives (e.g., eBay / PayPal, Xerox / Conduent)
◦Corporate governance changes (e.g., Newell, Caesars, DELL Technologies)
Current major holding: HERBALIFE, CHENIERE, OXY, newell, NAVISTAR
total revenue: -$1,719M (-300M form last year)
2. CVR Energy
- primarily engaged in the petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing.
net sales: $4,381M (-2,000M from last year)
3. Automotive
- in process of transformation plan. exiting with non-cash making fields
net sales: $2,585M (-300M)
4. Food packaging - Viskase companies
- leader in the production and sales of cellulosic, fibrous and plastic casings for the processed meat and poultry industry.
net sales: $399M (+17M)
5. Segment: Metals - PSC Metals
net sales: $273M (-70M)
6. Segment: Real Estate
net sales: $90M (-8M)
7. Segment: Home Fashion - WestPoint Home
net sales: $193M (+6M)
Financial Performance
Net income attribute to IEP: -$1,956M
